Jordan Faces Uncertain Future After USAID’s Closure

By Ahmed Arafat

USAID Project in Jordan. Credit: USAID

On July 01 2025, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) ceased operations worldwide. The closure was based on a series of events, starting with an executive order earlier in 2025 that imposed a sweeping 90-day pause on foreign aid, triggering a review of thousands of programmes.

By March, the White House had cancelled around 83% of USAID projects, nearly 5,200 contracts, while transferring about 1,000 programmes to the State Department. By July, the agency had formally wound down, with more than 90% of its staff laid off. What was once America’s flagship development body is now history.

For Jordan, among the largest per-capita recipients of US assistance, the end of USAID is more than symbolic.

It represents the sudden loss of predictable multi-billion-dollar flows that underpinned the kingdom’s public finances, service delivery, and even political stability.

A history of generous support

For decades, Washington was a financial lifeline for Amman. In 2023, the US provided an $845.1 million cash transfer to Jordan’s Treasury, the largest single government-to-government transfer of its kind.

Across 2023–2024, American commitments to Jordan ran into the low billions of dollars, covering everything from direct budget support and military financing to development projects in water, education, and health.

According to USAID budget data, these flows were not symbolic but essential to the kingdom’s fiscal stability.

“Predictable aid is more valuable than generous aid,” one Amman-based economist told Nisaba Media. “Without it, Jordan’s budget becomes an equation of debt and delay.”

Where the money went

USAID’s portfolio in Jordan funded a wide range of sectors. Development grants rehabilitated water systems, upgraded hospitals, trained teachers, and supported governance reforms. Humanitarian support helped Jordan shoulder the burden of hosting hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees.

Direct budgetary support, meanwhile, enabled the government to service debt and reduce deficits in critical years. With limited revenues and persistently high unemployment, US aid acted as a vital safety net.

Jordan’s fiscal squeeze

Jordan’s finances were already under strain before the agency’s demise. Public debt hovers near 90% of GDP, according to IMF and World Bank data. Debt servicing consumes a large share of the annual budget, leaving little room for new investment or expanded social protection.

The government’s 2025 General Budget Law lays bare these pressures: rising social needs, flat revenues, and heavy reliance on external concessional finance. Without USAID’s regular transfers, Jordan is left with few options beyond more borrowing, deeper cuts, or frantic diplomacy.

The human dimension: youth at risk

Young Jordanians are among those most vulnerable to the fallout. According to ILO estimates, youth unemployment hovers near 40%, and is considerably higher for young women. With project funding frozen and now ended, NGOs have reported layoffs and delayed payments. Programmes that offered training, internships, or livelihoods opportunities to young people have been scaled back or shuttered.

“When donor projects stop, young people lose not just jobs but hope,” a Jordanian civil society activist told Nisaba Media.

Disruptions on the ground

The impact of USAID’s global closure rippled through Jordan months before the official shut-down. In late 2024, Al-Jazeera reported that USAID had already frozen new awards and renewals, pending Washington’s decisions. Projects in health, municipal services, and livelihoods were the first casualties.

Contractors faced cash-flow crises, municipalities postponed infrastructure, and NGOs scaled back programmes. The disruption revealed how heavily Jordan’s development ecosystem relied on a single donor.

Searching for alternatives

Jordan has moved quickly to fill the vacuum. Officials in Amman have secured pledges from the EU, Gulf partners, and multilateral lenders such as the World Bank and IMF. The EU has increased its budgetary support, while Gulf states have hinted at additional grants or loans. Yet these pledges remain smaller and less predictable than the scale of US aid. And unlike USAID’s grants, concessional loans still add to Jordan’s debt load.

Possible scenarios

Analysts sketch three possible paths: full replacement, where swift donor coordination preserves budget stability; austerity plus reform, in which Jordan cuts subsidies and curbs public spending, risking unrest; and stop-start financing, where irregular donor flows create repeated project halts, layoffs, and hardship for vulnerable groups.

Each path carries costs. But the constant is uncertainty.

The bigger picture

Jordan has long leveraged its role as a stable partner in a volatile region to attract foreign aid. The closure of USAID highlights a deeper vulnerability: dependency. Without domestic revenue growth, debt reduction, and economic diversification, the kingdom’s financial security will remain hostage to external shifts.

For ordinary Jordanians, this is not abstract. It is about daily life. As one youth leader told Nisaba Media: “We don’t debate aid politics in cafés. We debate whether there will be work tomorrow.”

But the numbers speak clearly: billions in predictable US assistance have vanished; debt is pressing against GDP; youth unemployment remains staggering. For Jordan, the closure of USAID is not just a diplomatic tremor, it is a fiscal rupture. Whether Amman weathers the storm will depend on how quickly and reliably other partners step in, and whether domestic reforms can create space for growth. Without both, the kingdom risks trading one dependency for another, at a steep human cost.

Ahmed Arafat, a Palestinian-French writer and professor of comparative politics, is a researcher based in Caen, France.

The opinions expressed in this article are solely the author’s and do not represent the views of Nisaba Media.